The domestic organosilicon market in the first half of 2026 exhibited a "rise followed by fall" trend. Since the second quarter, DMC prices have continued to decline, fluctuating downwards from the year's high of over 14,800 yuan/ton in April. By July, the mainstream transaction price had fallen to a low of 12,000-13,000 yuan/ton, firmly establishing the industry's weak trend and setting a weak tone for the organosilicon market in the second half of the year.
The core reason for this round of DMC price declines is the imbalance between supply and demand. The tight balance supported by plant maintenance and production cuts in the first half of the year gradually disintegrated. In the second quarter, many plants resumed production after maintenance, and the implementation of production cuts varied across the industry, resulting in a continued loose supply. At the same time, downstream industries entered the traditional off-season, with weak recovery in end-user demand from construction and daily chemical sectors. Coupled with the fading export benefits, market transactions remained sluggish. Companies actively lowered prices to reduce inventory, further exacerbating downward pressure on prices. Currently, DMC prices are approaching the cash cost line for some companies, significantly shrinking industry profit margins.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2026, the organosilicon market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend with a gradual recovery, unlikely to see a significant rebound. On the supply side, low prices will force the industry to normalize production cuts, and small and medium-sized enterprises may be gradually forced out of the market, slowing the growth rate of supply and providing bottom support for prices. On the demand side, with the arrival of the traditional peak season at the end of the third quarter and the fourth quarter, the restocking demand of downstream deep-processing enterprises will gradually be released, and the demand from emerging sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy will steadily expand, driving marginal improvement in market demand.
On the cost side, the price fluctuation of raw material methanol is limited and unlikely to provide strong support. Overall, the price of organosilicon DMC will mainly fluctuate and recover at a low level in the second half of the year, with the downside gradually narrowing. A slight rebound may occur driven by the peak season, but constrained by the loose supply and demand situation, the overall increase will be limited, and the industry will gradually enter a weak recovery cycle of destocking and stabilizing profits.